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06/05/2008
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Rate hike possible but not likely
2008 inflation revised up to 5.4%
Our 2008 inflation forecast is revised up from 4.2% to 5.4%. However, core inflation is expected to peak at less than 3.5% which does not exceed the Bank of Thailand’s inflation target ceiling. We expect headline inflation to fall to 3.5% in 2009. This means that the BoT can refrain from raising interest rates in 2008 and 2009.

02/05/2008
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Economy grows strongly in 1Q
Recovery gathers steam in March
Private consumption and investment grew at satisfactory rates of 6.8%YoY and 7.2%YoY, partly due to a low base last year. However, the growth suggests solid recovery in domestic demand as people start to spend. Growth was strong in automobile sales (+40%YoY), motorcycle sales (+17.8%), consumer goods imports (+27%) and capital goods imports (+14.4%). Cement sales is the only indicator that remains weak, falling 8.5%YoY in Mar.

28/04/2008
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Talk of new elections not farfetched
Talk of new elections again

PM Samak again complained that the press misquoted him when news broke that

he sees new elections after constitution is amended. We can see reasons why

parliament would be dissolved and new elections held if constitutional amendment

is successful, and also when it is not successful.

23/04/2008
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Mar trade; BoT on hold in May
Slowdown in main exports; trade surplus $160mn

Exports grew only 14.4%YoY, vs 16.4% growth in Feb and 30% in Jan. Slowdown

was seen in major export items including electronics (-2.9%), electrical products

(+6.7%) and textiles (-1.9%), caused by falling demand from the US and Japan.

Imports rose 32.7%YoY, growth was strong in all categories especially oil imports

(+65%). Mar trade surplus was only $160mn.

11/04/2008
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Politics to heat up
PPP dissolution more of a threat than coup speculation

Despite speculation of a military coup, we believe the vote-buying case against

Yongyuth Tiyapairat, the People Power Party’s executive is more threatening to PPP.

If the Supreme Court finds him guilty as charged by the EC, then the PPP will face the

same threat of dissolution as Chat Thai and Matchima now faces. A Supreme Court

ruling against Yongyuth would be a landmark event that heightens political risk,

threatening to bring down the PPP-led government. If Yongyuth is guilty, a

Constitution Court verdict on PPP by the end of 3Q is probable in our view.

˹éÒ·Õè 1 ¨Ò¡·Ñé§ËÁ´ 67 [335 ÃÒ¡ÒÃ]
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