Even though expectations were low to begin with, May figures still disappointed. Manufacturing production fell 10% YoY (vs. 9.7% in April) and fell 1.2% MoM; private consumption -4.7% YoY (-1.2% MoM); tourist arrivals -22.2% YoY (-6.9% MoM); and farm income -29.4% YoY largely because farm prices fell 21.6%. The fall in farm income was severe given that it was flat in 1Q and then fell 10% in May.
26/06/2009
[ECON]Thailand Economics: the rush to price in the recovery Thai equities price in recovery early
In quickly reaching 600 in early June, the SET Index was early in assuming Thailand’s economic recovery in our view. It is as if the market is pricing in solid GDP growth by 4Q, but that would depend on many positives including an export recovery, rising capacity utilization, a good rice harvest, tourism revival and non-disruptive politics. It is far from certain that all will turn out well. We are not positive on politics and reiterate our view that general elections will be held around the beginning of next year and that GDP growth will be 3% in 2010.
22/06/2009
[ECON]Thailand Economics: May exports -26.6% Exports still at bottom, no recovery yet
May exports fell 26.6%YoY, slightly worse than the 26.1% contraction in April. Signs of improvement are nowhere to be seen. Still, export value has stabilized at US$11.7bn per month. We expect exports to edge up to about US$12bn per month from now on.
01/06/2009
[ECON]Thailand Economics: April production improves Production +7.6%mom
Apr manufacturing production rose 7.6%MoM (seasonally adjusted), following a 2.5% increase in Mar. The increase was seen in electronics and electrical appliances and tobacco. YoY, production fell 9.7%, a marked improvement over the 15% fall in Mar. Capacity utilization was 56.6% versus 66.6% in Apr08. Production is likely to improve further as increases in orders are seen over the next three months.
26/05/2009
[ECON]Thailand Economics: 1Q09 GDP -7.1% 1Q inventories, govt. weaker than expected
1Q09 GDP contracted 7.1% YoY, worse than 6.3% expected by the market. Seasonally adjusted, GDP fell 1.9% QoQ, following a 6.1% fall in 4Q08. The deeper contraction was attributed to inventory drawdowns, falling exports and lower domestic demand.
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