01/02/2010
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Capital outflow regulations eased Capital outflow regulations eased to reduce pressure on stronger baht
The Bank of Thailand today relaxed FX regulations for outbound investment both direct and portfolio, hedging transactions and fund transfers between companies and its affiliates. The announcement is not a surprise as the BoT gave advanced notice last week.
25/01/2010
[ECON]Thailand Economics: BoT not keen to raise rates just yet BoT not keen to raise rates just yet
BoT warned that it had kept policy rate abnormally low in 2009 but when it is confident of economic recovery, it will raise interest rates back to normal levels at the appropriate time. Nonetheless, we retain our out of consensus view that the BoT will be cautious and not raise rates this year. We believe that the points raised in the BoT’s latest inflation report released do not point to an imminent rate hike.
Exports in Dec totaled $14.6bn, stronger than expected. It rose 26.1%YoY and 5.7%MoM. With the strong recovery in exports in the last two months of 2009, exports exceeded our expectations and fell 14.2% for all of 2009. This is slightly better than our forecast which called for a 15% contraction. With a recovery in global demand, we expect exports to grow 10% in 2010. Our forecast is relatively conservative and slightly below consensus forecast of 12%.
04/01/2010
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Expansion resumed in Nov Expansion resumed in Nov but 4Q growth slowed
Overall demand expanded again in Nov, after some slowdown in previous months. However, monthly indicators suggested a decelerating rate of growth when compared with 3Q. It is likely that 4QE GDP will grow less than 1%QoQSA. GDP expanded 2.2% QoQSA in 2Q and 1.3%QoQSA in 3Q.
25/12/2009
[ECON]Thailand Economics: Political risks in 1Q 2010 A tale of two halves
We believe political risks are likely to come early to Thailand in 2010, with risks likely to peak from the end of January to February. After that, if some sort of resolution or clarity were to come about, 2010 could prove to be a year in which the 2H turns out to be much better than 1H.
Print